Mortality, Morbidity and Health-Seeking Behaviour during the Ebola Epidemic 2014-2015 in Monrovia Results from a Mobile Phone Survey.

Between March 2014 and July 2015 at least 10,500 Ebola cases including more than 4,800 deaths occurred in Liberia, the majority in Monrovia. However, official numbers may have underestimated the size of the outbreak. Closure of health facilities and mistrust in existing structures may have additionally impacted on all-cause morbidity and mortality. To quantify mortality and morbidity and describe health-seeking behaviour in Monrovia, Médecins sans Frontières (MSF) conducted a mobile phone survey from December 2014 to March 2015. We drew a random sample of households in Monrovia and conducted structured mobile phone interviews, covering morbidity, mortality and health-seeking behaviour from 14 May 2014 until the day of the survey. We defined an Ebola-related death as any death meeting the Liberian Ebola case definition. We calculated all-cause and Ebola-specific mortality rates. The sample consisted of 6,813 household members in 905 households. We estimated a crude mortality rate (CMR) of 0.33/10,000 persons/day (95%CI:0.25-0.43) and an Ebola-specific mortality rate of 0.06/10,000 persons/day (95%-CI:0.03-0.11). During the recall period, 17 Ebola cases were reported including those who died. In the 30 days prior to the survey 277 household members were reported sick; malaria accounted for 54% (150/277). Of the sick household members, 43% (122/276) did not visit any health care facility. The mobile phone-based survey was found to be a feasible and acceptable alternative method when data collection in the community is impossible. CMR was estimated well below the emergency threshold of 1/10,000 persons/day. Non-Ebola-related mortality in Monrovia was not higher than previous national estimates of mortality for Liberia. However, excess mortality directly resulting from Ebola did occur in the population. Importantly, the small proportion of sick household members presenting to official health facilities when sick might pose a challenge for future outbreak detection and mitigation. Substantial reported health-seeking behaviour outside of health facilities may also suggest the need for adapted health messaging and improved access to health care.

Chronic malaria and hyper-reactive malarial splenomegaly: a retrospective study on the largest series observed in a non-endemic country.

BACKGROUND: Chronic malaria is usually defined as a long-term malarial infection in semi-immune subjects, usually without fever or other acute symptoms. The untreated infection may evolve to hyper-reactive malarial splenomegaly (HMS), a life-threatening complication. This paper describes the largest series of HMS ever observed outside endemic countries, and the clinical outcome after a single anti-malarial treatment. Contrarily to most authors, still reporting the traditional, long-term treatment, regardless possible further exposure, the patients in this series did not receive any further prophylaxis if they were not re-exposed to malaria infection. METHODS: A retrospective, longitudinal study, describing all patients with HMS diagnosed at the Centre for Tropical Diseases of Negrar, Verona, took place over a 25-year period. HMS was defined by a longitudinal spleen diameter ≥16 cm, IgM ≥ 2.5 g/L, anti-malarial antibody titre ≥160, exclusion of other causes of splenomegaly. The short-term (≤6 months) clinical outcome after a single anti-malarial treatment was analysed and so was the long-term outcome of subjects re-exposed to malaria and submitted or not to anti-malarial prophylaxis or intermittent treatment. The association of the outcome with the main independent variables was first assessed with univariate analysis. Logistic regression was also performed. RESULTS: Forty-four subjects with HMS were retrieved. Of those with a short-term follow-up visit (<6 months, median 43 days) available before returning to endemic areas, 20/22 resulted improved/cured, two were unchanged. Of 22 expatriates seen at long-term follow-up after re-exposure, 18 were improved/cured, including eight out of nine who had followed an anti-malarial prophylaxis and 10/13 who had opted for the alternative of an intermittent treatment. CONCLUSION: HMS is the most severe form of chronic malaria. A single anti-malarial treatment is probably adequate to treat HMS in the absence of re-exposure, while an adequate prophylaxis is necessary for patients exposed again to malaria transmission. Intermittent treatment would probably be the only viable approach in endemic countries.

Early hyperreactive malarial splenomegaly and risk factors for evolution into the full-blown syndrome: a single-centre, retrospective, longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The hyperreactive malarial splenomegaly (HMS) represents a chronic, potentially fatal complication of malaria. Case definition includes: gross splenomegaly, high level of anti-malarial antibody and IgM, response to long-term anti-malarial prophylaxis. In this study, a large series of patients not fully meeting the case definition was tentatively classified as early hyperreactive malarial splenomegaly (e-HMS). The main research questions was: does "e-HMS" tend to evolve to the full-blown syndrome? And if so, what are the main factors influencing this evolution? METHODS: Retrospective, longitudinal study. The patient database was searched to retrieve all potentially eligible patients. e-HMS was defined by splenomegaly of any size (with or without raised IgM), high anti-malarial antibody titre and exclusion of other causes of splenomegaly. The clinical outcome at following visits was analysed in relation to re-exposure to malaria, and to treatment (only part of the patients with e-HMS were treated with a single anti-malarial treatment and advised to follow an effective anti-malarial prophylaxis, if re-exposed). The association of the outcome with the main independent variables was first assessed with univariate analysis. A stepwise logistic regression model was then performed to study the association of the outcome with the main independent variables. RESULTS: One hundred and twenty-six subjects with e-HMS were retrieved. Eighty-one had at least one follow-up visit. Of 46 re-exposed to malaria for a variable period, 21 (46 %) had progressed, including 10/46 (22 %) evolving to full-blown HMS, while of 29 patients not re-exposed, 24 (93 %) had improved or cured and five (7 %) progressed (p < 0.001). At logistic regression re-exposure was confirmed as a major risk factor of progression (OR 9.458, CI 1.767-50.616) while treatment at initial visit was protective (OR 0.187, CI 0.054-0.650). CONCLUSION: e-HMS should be regarded as a clinical condition predisposing to HMS. Although the case definition may include false positives, e-HMS should be treated just as the full-blown syndrome. A single anti-malarial treatment is probably adequate, followed by effective prophylaxis for patients exposed again to malaria transmission.

Strict adherence to malaria rapid test results might lead to a neglect of other dangerous diseases: a cost benefit analysis from Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) have generally been found reliable and cost-effective. In Burkina Faso, the adherence of prescribers to the negative test result was found to be poor. Moreover, the test accuracy for malaria-attributable fever (MAF) is not the same as for malaria infection. This paper aims at determining the costs and benefits of two competing strategies for the management of MAF: presumptive treatment for all or use of RDTs. METHODS: A cost benefit analysis was carried out using a decision tree, based on data previously obtained, including a randomized controlled trial (RCT) recruiting 852 febrile patients during the dry season and 1,317 in the rainy season. Cost and benefit were calculated using both the real adherence found by the RCT and assuming an ideal adherence of 90% with the negative result. The main parameters were submitted to sensitivity analysis. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: At real adherence, the test-based strategy was dominated. Assuming ideal adherence, at the value of 525 € for a death averted, the total cost of managing 1,000 febrile children was 1,747 vs. 1,862 € in the dry season and 1,372 vs. 2,138 in the rainy season for the presumptive vs. the test-based strategy. For adults it was 2,728 vs. 1,983 and 2,604 vs. 2,225, respectively. At the subsidized policy adopted locally, assuming ideal adherence, the RDT would be the winning strategy for adults in both seasons and for children in the dry season.At sensitivity analysis, the factors most influencing the choice of the better strategy were the value assigned to a death averted and the proportion of potentially severe NMFI treated with antibiotics in patients with false positive RDT results. The test-based strategy appears advantageous for adults if a satisfactory adherence could be achieved. For children the presumptive strategy remains the best choice for a wide range of scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: For RDTs to be preferred, a positive result should not influence the decision to treat a potentially severe NMFI with antibiotics. In the rainy season the presumptive strategy always remains the better choice for children.

Accuracy of a rapid diagnostic test on the diagnosis of malaria infection and of malaria-attributable fever during low and high transmission season in Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Malaria management policies currently recommend that the treatment should only be administered after laboratory confirmation. Where microscopy is not available, rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are the usual alternative. Conclusive evidence is still lacking on the safety of a test-based strategy for children. Moreover, no formal attempt has been made to estimate RDTs accuracy on malaria-attributable fever. This study aims at estimating the accuracy of a RDT for the diagnosis of both malaria infection and malaria - attributable fever, in a region of Burkina Faso with a typically seasonal malaria transmission pattern. METHODS: Cross-sectional study. SUBJECTS: all patients aged > 6 months consulting during the study periods. Gold standard for the diagnosis of malaria infection was microscopy. Gold standard for malaria-attributable fever was the number of fevers attributable to malaria, estimated by comparing parasite densities of febrile versus non-febrile subjects. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: severe clinical condition needing urgent care. RESULTS: In the dry season, 186/852 patients with fever (22%) and 213/1,382 patients without fever (15%) had a Plasmodium falciparum infection. In the rainy season, this proportion was 841/1,317 (64%) and 623/1,669 (37%), respectively. The attributable fraction of fever to malaria was 11% and 69%, respectively. The RDT was positive in 113/400 (28.3%) fever cases in the dry season, and in 443/650 (68.2%) in the rainy season. In the dry season, the RDT sensitivity and specificity for malaria infection were 86% and 90% respectively. In the rainy season they were 94% and 78% respectively. In the dry season, the RDT sensitivity and specificity for malaria-attributable fever were 94% and 75%, the positive predictive value (PPV) was 9% and the negative predictive value (NPV) was 99.8%. In the rainy season the test sensitivity for malaria-attributable fever was 97% and specificity was 55%. The PPV ranged from 38% for adults to 82% for infants, while the NPV ranged from 84% for infants to over 99% for adults. CONCLUSIONS: In the dry season the RDT has a low positive predictive value, but a very high negative predictive value for malaria-attributable fever. In the rainy season the negative test safely excludes malaria in adults but not in children.

Rapid malaria diagnostic tests vs. clinical management of malaria in rural Burkina Faso: safety and effect on clinical decisions. A randomized trial.

OBJECTIVES: To assess if the clinical outcome of patients treated after performing a Rapid Diagnostic Test for malaria (RDT) is at least equivalent to that of controls (treated presumptively without test) and to determine the impact of the introduction of a malaria RDT on clinical decisions. METHODS: Randomized, multi-centre, open clinical trial in two arms in 2006 at the end of the dry and of the rainy season in 10 peripheral health centres in Burkina Faso: one arm with use of RDT before treatment decision, one arm managed clinically. Primary endpoint: persistence of fever at day 4. Secondary endpoints: frequency of malaria treatment and of antibiotic treatment. RESULTS: A total of 852 febrile patients were recruited in the dry season and 1317 febrile patients in the rainy season, and randomized either to be submitted to RDT (P_RTD) or to be managed presumptively (P_CLIN). In both seasons, no significant difference was found between the two randomized groups in the frequency of antimalarial treatment, nor of antibiotic prescription. In the dry season, 80.8% and 79.8% of patients with a negative RDT were nevertheless diagnosed and treated for malaria, and so were 85.0% and 82.6% negative patients in the rainy season. In the rainy season only, both diagnosis and treatment of other conditions were significantly less frequent in RDT positive vs. negative patients (48.3% vs. 61.4% and 46.2% vs. 59.9%, P = 0.00 and 0.00, respectively). CONCLUSION: Our study was inconclusive on RDT safety (clinical outcome in the two randomized groups), because of an exceedingly and unexpectedly low compliance with the negative test result. Further research is needed on best strategies to promote adherence and on the safety of a test based strategy compared with the current, presumptive treatment strategy.